While most people rank airfares as the single most important factor in selecting which airline to fly (Mango Airlines was cheapest in most of our 2013 surveys), nervous passengers will agree that safety is just as important. There are some overseas organisations which have set up airline safety rating scales, but local is lekker, and it's time for us South Africans to take charge and do it for ourselves. As a 120% proudly South African organisation, we have therefore set up South Africa's first safety rating system for domestic airlines offering a scheduled service (ie excludes charter airlines, etc...). As a first attempt, it's likely that we've missed things out - please let us know and we'll work the improvements in.
SA Express only Airline with Full Marks
On the rating scale we set up, the only major airline operating scheduled flights, which scored the highest possible air safety rating of 4/4 is SA Express. The airline has had no fatal incidents, no non-fatal incidents in the last 3 years, the CAA hasn't grounded its aircraft and it is IOSA certified. This is, of course, no guarantee that there wont be incidents in the future.
Methodology
Ratings are calculated on the following basis:
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If an airline is IOSA certified, it scored a point.
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If an airline had no fatal incidents in the last 10 years, it scored 1 point.
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Airlines start with 1 point, and lose half a point for each non-fatal incident in the last 3 years. Only incidents which make it onto the list of Aircraft Accident Reports maintained by the SA Civil Aviation Authority count.
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Airlines gain a point if they have had none of their fleet grounded in the last 5 years.
There are a lot of different methodologies which could be followed, so don't take this one as being the gospel truth :) We are not sure of the extent to which these factors imply probabilities of future incidents - it's even possible that we got it completely wrong, and that past incidents are negatively correlated with future incidents, if airlines tend to learn from past mistakes.
Because Kulula and British Airways SA both fly under the Comair license, and CAA investigations take place at the Comair level, we've grouped them together.
Rating Calculation
Overall Score |
IOSA |
Fatal |
Incidents |
Grounded |
|
SA Express |
4 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
What is missing?
We need to factor in the number of flights which each airline fly, as airlines which fly more frequently will on average have a higher number of accidents & incidents than those which fly less, even if they are equally safe. There are probably other things missing, and are hoping for feedback on what else should be looked at.
Industry feedback
Here's some external feedback I sourced on the subject of airline safety:
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Francoise Armour (who runs Tours du Cap - give her a shout if ever want to arrange a tour trip from Cape Town) says that "Strangely enough, I have never felt unsafe on any flight, not even when there is a lot of turbulence. I’m that passenger who pays no attention to the safety spiel at the start of a flight because I’ve heard it many times. And as far as other fears go, such as terror attacks, I never even think about it when flying. I guess it’s because I know that stats show that flying in an airplane is far less dangerous than other activities such as driving on roads."
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Des Haakenson (who runs Travelground's twitter account): "Personally, I've never felt unsafe on a plane, but I love Kulula's funny pre-flight safety quips. I haven't actually flown with them in a few years, so I don't know if they still do it, but it was a great way to lighten the spirits and put you at ease."
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Di Brown (Jabedi Publishing): "For many years I worked as an Aeronautical Cartographer, and as such, received the monthly A.I.C. Accident Reports. The majority of these incidents were reported by the pilots of small, privately owned planes whose landing wheels did not extend properly, wheels hitting anthills on take- off or landing, or wings clipping a barn or other structure. Very rarely resulting in any injury, just the inconvenience of having to do minor repairs. Occasionally there would be reports of these small planes flying in to power lines, often with serious consequences. Very rarely were there reports involving large carriers from major airlines. The incidents reported by them usually involved overshooting the runway by a few hundred meters, something passengers would not even be aware of. For me, the more information I have, the more secure I feel. When there is a problem, the intercom will generally announce there is a “minor technical problem” or say nothing at all. Human nature dictates that most people will become highly anxious at this point and expect the worst, when often, the pilot is merely being cautious. The truth of the situation is generally less alarming than the scenarios being imagined by the passengers. We had an incident on a BAA flight from Cape Town to London many years ago. We were on the final approach to Heathrow, about 200 m above ground, when the engines suddenly roared and we surged straight up. We then proceeded to circle in the holding pattern for over 40 minutes, with no announcement from the crew at all. It transpired that the landing gear had not engaged and while we were circling they were trying to get it to extend properly. All they needed to do was to tell us, and explain that the landing gear was creating problems and give us the best and worst case scenario. (perhaps slightly sugar coated). Landing with fire trucks and an array of emergency vehicles standing by did not inspire confidence. A year later, flying with Air Egypt from Cape Town to Cairo, we hit the runway at high speed, cowboy style, came to a screeching halt at the very end of the runway, and all the Egyptians on the plane applauded and cheered. We later discovered this was standard practice".
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Dawn Jorgensen, travel writer: "How safe you feel on an aircraft? Very, having come to the realisation that I am at more risk crossing the road in my Boland home town, than I am flying. I now focus on how lucky I am to be going on a journey, to be tavelling. That I am in a chair - in the sky! And with that the focus, I am never worried. Just grateful." Is there anything airlines can change to make you feel safer? "Never seat me next to a nervous flier :)" Describe any situation you've been involved in on a plane where you haven't felt safe: "Probably the scariest scenarios have involved bad turbulence over the ocean, where the plane drops what feels like metres and passengers scream out. Never easy. Also not being able to land because of bad weather and circling around for ages hoping that we won't run out of fuel. My worst though was an African airline that took off over the ocean in Benin - just! Having gone straight into it just a few week before killing everybody. Hard not to think about that in the moment." Anything else to do with airline safety:" I am always a little nervous in a heavily packed plane, hoping that they've balanced it properly. But yoga helps, I breath and focus on other things."
