Flight price inflation

Cheapest flight price inflation has has dropped back into negative territory, -0.2%, and coach prices are down by 5.5% (both lower than the official inflation rate of +6.3% to December 2009).

	JHB-CPT	CPT-DUR	DUR-JHB	CPT-JHB	DUR-CPT	JHB-DUR	AVG DATE	AVG INFL
Flight Inflation	-24.0%	-2.4%	-13.3%	-14.3%	+3.8%	+48.8%		-0.2%
Coach Bus Inflation	-21.3%	+19.2%	-9.8%	+3.1%	-23.3%	-0.9%		-5.5%
End Date	19 Feb 10	26 Feb 10	5 Mar 10	29 Jan 10	5 Feb 10	12 Feb 10	15 Feb 10

These are unofficial numbers (air travel is excluded from the basket of goods used to calculate South Africa's official rate of inflation, as a low percentage of South African households purchase air tickets). No attempt has been made to measure inflation in the same manner as Stats SA would. In particular, the rates of inflation are based on the price increases for the cheapest ticket on the route, rather than the whole basket of flight prices.

Flight price inflation dips back into the negative

After going positive for the first time since 20 Apr 2009, flight price inflation has dipped back into negative territory.

	Flight price inflation	Coach bus price inflation	Official CPI inflation
15 Feb 2010	-0.2%	-5.5%	?
8 Feb 2010	+0.6%	-2.3%	?
1 Feb 2010	-3.3%	-4.0%	?
25 Jan 2010	-3.3%	-0.8%	?
18 Jan 2010	-11.2%	-0.7%	?
11 Jan 2010	-16.0%	+4.7%	?
4 Jan 2010	-10.7%	+5.0%	?
28 Dec 2009	-7.4%	+4.9%	+6.3%
21 Dec 2009	-10.3%	+3.9%	+6.3%
14 Dec 2009	-7.3%	+3.8%	+6.3%
7 Dec 2009	-3.1%	+1.1%	+6.3%
30 Nov 2009	-4.7%	-4.5%	+5.8%
23 Nov 2009	-12.3%	-5.6%	+5.8%
16 Nov 2009	-16.8%	-10.4%	+5.8%
9 Nov 2009	-19.1%	-14.9%	+5.8%
2 Nov 2009	-20.6%	-15.9%	+5.8%
26 Oct 2009	-25.3%	-13.6%	+5.9%
19 Oct 2009	-26.7%	-13.4%	+5.9%
12 Oct 2009	-23.6%	-14.4%	+5.9%
5 Oct 2009	-21.6%	-12.7%	+5.9%
28 Sep 2009	-23.7%	-7.5%	+6.1%
21 Sep 2009	-22.9%	-3.2%	+6.1%
14 Sep 2009	-21.5%	-4.1%	+6.1%
7 Sep 2009	-19.3%	+0.4%	+6.1%
31 Aug 2009	-12.7%	+3.5%	+6.4%
24 Aug 2009	-9.3%	+4.5%	+6.4%
17 Aug 2009	-5.3%	+4.1%	+6.4%
10 Aug 2009	-6.3%	-0.8%	+6.4%
3 Aug 2009	-2.4%	-1.8%	+6.4%
27 Jul 2009	-3.4%	-1.0%	+6.7%
20 Jul 2009	-5.4%	-2.0%	+6.7%
13 Jul 2009	-8.2%	+2.0%	+6.7%
6 Jul 2009	+8.9%	-2.2%	+6.7%
29 Jun 2009	+9.4%	-0.1%	+6.9%
22 Jun 2009	+6.2%	+1.7%	+6.9%
15 Jun 2009	+5.0%	+1.3%	+6.9%
8 Jun 2009	+1.3%	+2.7%	+6.9%
1 Jun 2009	+1.2%	+4.5%	+6.9%
25 May 2009	-11.8%	+5.2%	+8.0%
18 May 2009	-8.8%	+8.6%	+8.0%
11 May 2009	-4.9%	+13.0%	+8.0%
4 May 2009	-3.3%	+16.7%	+8.0%
27 Apr 2009	-2.7%	+19.5%	+8.4%
20 Apr 2009	+7.0%	-	-
13 Apr 2009	+11.8%	-	-
6 Apr 2009	+8.6%	-	-
30 Mar 2009	+6.5%	-	-
23 Mar 2009	+16.8%	-	-
16 Mar 2009	+23.6%	-	-
9 Mar 2009	+25.0%	-	-
2 Mar 2009	+22.9%	-	-
23 Feb 2009	+31.7%	-	-
16 Feb 2009	+22.5%	-	-
9 Feb 2009	+14.3%	-	-
2 Feb 2009	+0.5%	-	-
26 Jan 2009	-2.5%	-	-
19 Jan 2009	-1.9%	-	-
12 Jan 2009	-7.2%	-	-
5 Jan 2009	-4.3%	-	-
29 Dec 2008	+5.4%	-	-
22 Dec 2008	+8.4%	-	-

name	comment

email address (optional)
In small letters, spell out the symbol @

Name	Comment
Mr Cheap Flights	Graeme, you're absolutely correct. The oil price has dropped about 25% over the last year (in Rand terms), and only the fall in Cape Town to Johannesburg flight prices is close to that. On the other hand, oil isn't the only cost of airlines, and manpower costs for instance would have risen over the period. I suspect that airlines also were cutting fares to the bone at the end of last year and now are trying to make up some ground.
graeme	What I find interesting is that none of these prices appear to bear any relation to the cost of fuel which i would have thought would be the main determinant of flight price ioinflation, rather these figures seem to imply that the 'inflation' is really just pricing to match supply and demand...

Name

Comment

Mr Cheap Flights

Graeme, you're absolutely correct. The oil price has dropped about 25% over the last year (in Rand terms), and only the fall in Cape Town to Johannesburg flight prices is close to that. On the other hand, oil isn't the only cost of airlines, and manpower costs for instance would have risen over the period. I suspect that airlines also were cutting fares to the bone at the end of last year and now are trying to make up some ground.

graeme

What I find interesting is that none of these prices appear to bear any relation to the cost of fuel which i would have thought would be the main determinant of flight price ioinflation, rather these figures seem to imply that the 'inflation' is really just pricing to match supply and demand...